Проект для университета.
Задание ниже + в приложенном архиве.
Pentland is a medium size prospect, with recoverable reserves of:-
400 million barrels of oil (36º API)
200 * 109 standard cubic feet [scf] of gas
A conceptual design has been prepared, based on a template and a steel jacket, with pipelines
of 30 miles and 50 miles required to export liquid and gaseous products to the nearest facilities
It is estimated that this development will cost about £750 million, with an annual operating
expenditure of £45 million (both in 2004 terms). In addition, export tariffs of £0.60 per barrel
and £0.40 per 103 scf (both 2004 terms) are expected. Provided that the economic climate does
not cause a delay to the investment decision, fabrication could begin in 2005, with production
expected in 2009.
2. Economic Assumptions
Management is pessimistic about the oil market and has requested a conservative analysis. The
following are to be assumed:-
Oil Price (2004):- $14 per barrel [Constant in “money of the day” terms]
Gas Price (2004) $2.50 per 103 scf [Constant in “money of the day” terms]
Exchange Rate $1.65 / £ [Constant]
Inflation Rate 3 % per annum [Constant]
3. Project Capex (£2004 Millions)
Year Exp.&App Dev. Wells Platform + Export Abandon.
NUMBERS IN ARCHIVE
4. Oil and Gas Production
Year Oil Production000 bopd Gas Production106 scfd
NUMBERS IN ARCHIVE
5. Taxation (£ millions mod)
Year Tax Payments
NUMBERS IN ARCHIVE
Assume that data and questions relate to mid 2004.
1. Construct Cash Flow matrix in Pounds of the day
2. Calculate Net Cash Flow
3. Convert to 2004 Pounds
4. Plot cumulative Cash Flow against Time
5. Estimate or calculate the following simple Measures of Value:-
Terminal Cash Surplus
Maximum Capital Outlay
Profit to Investment Ratio
6. Compute Net Present Value with Discount Rate of
12 percent and using mid 2004 as the time origin
7. Is this a worthwhile investment ?
8. Construct the NPV Profile and use it to estimate a value for the Internal Rate of Return
9. As a check, compute the NPV for i = IRR (estimated) and compare with zero.
10. Normalise the NCF and investigate the impact of this on IRR.
1. Please estimate approximate exploration risk (total probability of success) for Petroleum
Prospects A and B below?
2. What prospect you as an Executive Officer would you select for your company to proceed with
exploration and development in terms of risk and why?
3. What prospect you would select for your company to proceed with exploration and
development in terms of volume of potential reserves and company revenue and why?
Figure of cross section. Potential prospects in Maracaibo basin, Venezuela.
Using your previous data for medium size field prospect with reserves of 400 million barrels of oil
(36 API) in Project A please make analysis and estimation if project will start at 2020 not at 2004.
Exploration and Appraisal expenses were at 2018 and 2019.
Inflation rate (2020): 1.19% per annum
Oil price (2020): 33$ per barrel
Exchange rate (2020): 1.22$ per pound
Please make the same calculation keeping the rest project parameters unchanged.
Please compare Project A if proceed at 2004 and 2020? Would you proceed or not with the project
now at 2020 and explain why? Project development at what timeframe would be more beneficial and
Please write brief Executive Summary and e-mail me together with Excel sheets for 2 projects A
2004 and 2020.
You have scouting information for different companies and 2 different types of oil and gas project
Cases from different locations. You might also find from open sources information in the Internet
about you projects if you want. However, based on the given data and your current knowledge
please make brief SWOT analysis, if you have data make at hand estimation of reserves,
production, potential CAPEX (in terms high, medium, low) and possible revenues and
attractiveness or not of the projects at current 2020 conditions. Use current 33$ per barrel oil price,
for gas use open sources price if necessary.
For every project please decide from the point of you of stakeholder (company, etc) for what type of
business decision you go? Would you go for participation, development, purchasing, selling,
keeping away from project, etc move that might be in your cases or not in order to make financial
profits for your stakeholder now and in the near and medium future? Please briefly explain why and
include your brief calculations if you have one to your SWOT.